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Big Sky football picks: 406 MT Sports writers like Griz, Bobcats to pass home tests Saturday
Big Sky football picks: 406 MT Sports writers like Griz, Bobcats to pass home tests Saturday
Big Sky football picks: 406 MT Sports writers like Griz, Bobcats to pass home tests Saturday

Published on: 10/01/2024

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Bill Speltz

One aspect of college football you'll never hear much about is physical conditioning.

The assumption is all athletes competing in college — whether it be in football, basketball, tennis or whatever — are in terrific shape. But some teams and athletes are in better shape than others.

Take, for example, Montana's most recent home football game against then-24th-ranked Western Carolina. The Catamounts are a talented group and they showed just how good they can be by racing to a 17-0 lead over the Grizzlies at elevation at jam-packed Washington-Grizzly Stadium.

Then something happened as the second quarter progressed. Western Carolina's defense became visibly tired.

Some of that may have been a lack of depth and some may have been playing against an explosive offense at 3,100 feet. But there's no doubt conditioning played at least a small role in what happened when UM outscored WCU 32-8 over the last 31 minutes on the way to an 11-point win.

The Grizzlies take a great deal of pride in their offseason conditioning program. It's anyone's guess how much that conditioning pays off during the season, but it's worth noting Montana was 2-0 in overtime games last season and 6-0 in games decided by eight points or less. And this season, the Grizzlies are 2-1 in games decided by eight points or less.

Whether fitness level plays a role Saturday in Missoula — it may not be much of a factor since Weber State plays home games at 4,300 feet — Montana's game against the Wildcats could be a good one. Weber is 1-2 in road games and lost at home to McNeese last Saturday, 28-26. But the Wildcats are 1-0 in Big Sky play and have beaten UM in two of their last three meetings.      

Here's a look Saturday's Big Sky Conference games:

Weber State (1-0, 2-3) at No. 8 Montana (1-0, 4-1), 1 p.m. TV: Scripps Sports. The Grizzlies have won their last 14 games at Washington-Grizzly Stadium. They showed in last Saturday's 52-49 win at Eastern Washington there's still a lot of work to be done on the defensive end, but the offense was impressive with Logan Fife at quarterback. Weber was bested by a former Grizzly quarterback last week, McNeese's Clifton McDowell, and my hunch is the Wildcats' defense will be overwhelmed again this week by the current Montana QB — whether it be Fife or Keali'i Ah Yat — in front of an impressive crowd at Washington-Grizzly Stadium. Speltz: Montana 34, Weber State 24. Gogola: Montana 45, Weber State 21. Flores: Griz 34, Weber 24. 

Northern Colorado (0-1, 0-5) at No. 3 Montana State (1-0, 5-0), 2 p.m. TV: Scripps Sports and ESPN+. This is the easiest pick of the week, mostly because the Bears are really struggling. Last week they lost on their home turf to Cal Poly, 28-7. They have been outscored 166-60 this season. Montana State was not particularly impressive in its win at Idaho State, 37-17, but the Bobcats have some injury issues on their offensive line and that has made their dominant ground game a little less intimidating. This matchup comes at a good time for MSU because the Bobcats will be able to rest some of their banged up standouts and will still steamroll to victory. Speltz: Montana State 54, Northern Colorado 10. Gogola: Montana State 49, Northern Colorado 9. Flores: Cats 48, UNC 0.

No. 9 UC Davis (1-0, 4-1) at Portland State (0-1, 0-4), 2 p.m. TV: ESPN+. The Aggies had a monster win over then-fourth-ranked Idaho last weekend, 28-26. It marked the first victory in Davis program history over a top-5 ranked opponent. The Aggies are that sleeper few expect to win the conference title, partially because Montana State and Montana loom so large. Davis had a close call at Southern Utah three weeks ago, winning 24-21, and that left me wondering if the Aggies were even playoff material. They have played better since then and own the second-longest win streak (four games) in the conference behind Montana State (five games). Portland State, on the other hand, has lost four games in a row. Speltz: Aggies 34, Vikings 13. Gogola: UC Davis 38, Portland State 21. Flores: Davis 31, PSU 17. 

No. 25 Northern Arizona (1-0, 3-2) at No. 10 Idaho (0-1, 3-2), 3 p.m. TV: ESPN+. Were the Vandals overrated with their No. 4 ranking prior to last weekend's loss in Davis, California? Probably a little bit. They certainly do not seem to be any better than Montana and I'd pick the Grizzlies to win if they had a game scheduled this year inside Washington-Grizzly Stadium (they do not). Idaho's claim to fame this year is its win at FBS Wyoming last month. But Wyoming is 1-4, so there's that. Northern Arizona is a Big Sky darkhorse. The Lumberjacks stunned then-10th-ranked Sacramento State in the Walkup Skydome last week, and they'll give the Vandals a serious test this Saturday. Expect a close game. I'll give Idaho the nod because the team is used to playing in a dome and has its back against the wall in its quest for league supremacy. Speltz: Vandals 28, Lumberjacks 26. Gogola: Idaho 31, Northern Arizona 27. Flores: Idaho 27, NAU 20. 

Idaho State (0-1, 2-3) at Cal Poly (1-0, 2-2), 6 p.m. TV: ESPN+.  This is a clash of much-improved teams. The Bengals trailed highly touted Montana State by just a touchdown early in the fourth quarter last Saturday before the game got away from them in a 37-17 home loss. The Mustangs have built momentum after two blowout losses to FBS teams to start the season. Still, one could argue Cal Poly's two-straight wins don't mean much since they came at the expense of NAIA Western Oregon and winless Northern Colorado. Anyway, I like what I saw out of the Bengals in last Saturday's loss to Montana State. They've got a decent defense and capable offense, which was on full display in a 38-28 home win over Southern Utah two weeks ago. Speltz: Bengals 38, Mustangs 28. Gogola: Idaho State 34, Cal Poly 17. Flores: ISU 35, Cal Poly 21.

Bill Speltz is Missoulian sports editor. Contact him at [email protected] or on Twitter @billspeltz

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News Source : https://missoulian.com/sports/college/big-sky-conference/montana-state-university/406-mt-sports-football-picks-grizzlies-bobcats-home-games-weber-state/article_633f7f36-d27a-5c3a-a028-d50da35ba24e.html

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