As Congress grapples with a spending and tax bill, uncertainty looms over its fate. The House Budget Committee is set to begin its markup Friday morning, but growing opposition is emerging from both parties, complicating House Speaker Mike Johnson's efforts to secure passage.

Republicans appear particularly fractured, with a mix of hardline conservatives and moderate members expressing concerns about the legislation. Some GOP lawmakers are unhappy with the proposed spending cuts, arguing they do not go far enough, while others believe the cuts are excessive. Additionally, there are calls for further tax reductions beyond what is included in the current package.

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During a recent discussion, House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington indicated uncertainty about whether the bill can even secure enough support in the committee for a vote in the full House next week. Multiple committee members have publicly stated their opposition, complicating the bill's path forward.

If this bill came up for a vote right now, "I wouldn’t support it,” said Rep. Chip Roy, a Texas Republican, reflecting the sentiments of several of his colleagues. Another noted that, as currently written, the bill would not pass.

Despite Republicans holding a majority on the House Budget Committee, a budget proposal was turned down by a 21-16 margin on Friday within the panel.

The stakes are high as the Republican Party holds one of the slimmest majorities in the history of the House. With crucial votes needed from conservative members who have voiced firm opposition, the prospects for the bill remain dim without significant revisions.

Among the bill's contentious issues are proposed changes to Medicaid that could impact millions of Americans. While Republicans argue these are not cuts but rather work requirements that would save billions, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that the legislation could strip over 8 million people of their Medicaid coverage over the next decade. The eligibility changes would not take effect until 2029, raising concerns about whether moderate Republicans can accept these long-term implications.

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Another point of contention is the inclusion of tax measures that some factions within the GOP are pressing for, notably the restoration of the state and local tax (SALT) deduction. Limited to $10,000 since 2017, this cap remains a contentious issue among Republicans from high-tax states. Efforts to raise this cap could add significant costs to the overall bill, making it an uphill battle to unify the party.

With a self-imposed deadline of next Friday for passing the legislation, Johnson faces an uphill challenge. As the countdown continues, the necessity for compromise becomes increasingly critical for Republicans eager to achieve legislative victories ahead of the approaching midterm elections.

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