Published on: 11/04/2024
Description
Even with historically close polling going into Election Day, one renowned historian is sticking by his prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the White House.
Allan Lichtman is a professor of history at American University. His track record with calling elections is impressive, to say the least: He's correctly predicted 9 out of the last 10 presidential races using his "keys to the White House" rubric.
Lichtman spoke with Scripps News on the eve of the election. He said polling is not the best measure of future events.
"They're snapshots. They are not predictors. They are abused as predictors," he said.
Instead, Lichtman's keys model analyzes the fundamentals of the incumbent administration.
"Why are the keys different? Because unlike the polls, they reflect the structure of how American presidential elections really work."
RELATED STORY | Will Vice President Harris beat Trump? Historian who's predicted 9 of the last 10 elections weighs in
Economic headlines warning of weak jobs reports, for example, aren't shaking Lichtman's expectation that Harris will carry the election.
"The short-term economic key says there's no recession in the election year. The long-term economic key says that real per-capita growth during the Biden term has been much greater than the average of the previous two terms."
Watch the full interview with Lichtman in the video above.
News Source : https://www.kbzk.com/politics/path-to-the-white-house/historian-allan-lichtman-sticks-by-his-prediction-of-a-harris-win
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