Ten years ago, walking through downtown Whitefish or the parking lot at a popular trailhead in the Flathead Valley, you might be forgiven for thinking you had accidentally crossed the border into Canada. 

During the summer and winter — and especially on long holiday weekends — it seemed as if the number of red and white Alberta plates outnumbered Montana ones. Storefronts in Kalispell had signs welcoming Canadians (and their money). A local newspaper published a border crossing guide so visitors from the north could know the rules about what they could and couldn’t bring into the U.S. There were even T-shirts declaring Whitefish to be “Canada’s Tijuana.”

For decades, the Flathead Valley was a popular destination for Canadians, especially Albertans, looking to stretch their dollar at American department stores or hit the slopes in winter. Many even bought second homes in the area, with places like Meadow Lake Resort near Columbia Falls becoming unofficial Canadian enclaves (or “Little Canada” as one researcher described it). 

But the pandemic-related border closures and economic challenges on both sides of the border changed all that. And now, the ongoing threat of a trade war between the two countries threatens to fray northwest Montana’s Canadian connection even further. 

Donna Townley, a Canadian economist and instructor at the University of Lethbridge, has been studying the connection between Alberta and Montana for years and even owns a home near Whitefish. She said Canadians first started coming to the Flathead Valley in significant numbers in the 1980s, and the trend ballooned in the 2010s. Part of the reason was that thanks to oil and gas production, Alberta’s economy was not significantly impacted during the Great Recession in 2008. That same year, the average household income in Alberta was nearly twice that in Montana. With Montana’s housing market in shambles, Canadians started buying up property. By 2015, more than 1,600 properties in Flathead County were owned by someone with a primary address in Canada, making up almost half of all Canadian-owned properties in the state.

Townley said Albertans liked coming south because their money could go further, but also because the Flathead Valley was culturally and politically similar to the conservative-leaning province. And while Alberta has its own mountain resorts, most notably Banff about an hour and a half west of Calgary, towns like Whitefish were considerably less busy a decade ago. 

Canadian visitation to the Flathead began to slide downward in the late 2010s as Alberta’s economy began to stumble, and then it plummeted in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. The border was closed to all non-essential travel for more than a year and wasn’t fully open without restrictions (such as presenting a negative COVID-19 test before crossing) until early 2022. 

During the closure, many Canadians with homes in the Flathead could not access them. With home prices in the area skyrocketing, many decided to sell. Townley said by one estimate, more than 500 Canadians sold their properties in the Flathead Valley between 2020 and 2022. 

But those who held on to their property or resumed vacationing in Montana after the pandemic were in for a rude awakening when they finally returned. For years, one of the big draws was the cost of goods in Montana; Townley said it was common for families from Lethbridge and elsewhere to drive to Kalispell and spend hundreds of dollars or more on groceries because it was cheaper than back home. But after the pandemic, things had flipped and suddenly it was more expensive to buy just about anything in Montana. 

Townley said that in years past, her family did all their shopping in the Kalispell area, but now they only buy the essentials or things they cannot bring across the border, such as meat and vegetables. They’ve also stopped eating out at area restaurants; it’s just too expensive, she said. 

“You’ve got higher inflation, higher prices for goods and a weaker Canadian dollar,” she said. “So when you add all that together, a lot of people don’t think it’s worth going down anymore.”

Statistics from the U.S. Department of Transportation show that visitation between Canada and Montana has dropped significantly since the 2010s. At the Port of Roosville near Eureka, the closest border crossing to the Flathead Valley, 359,950 people entered the United States in private vehicles in 2014. By 2024, that number had dropped to 269,233. The same drop was found at Sweetgrass, the busiest border crossing in Montana. In 2014, 563,486 people entered at the port north of Shelby, but just 356,910 crossed over last year. 

Nick Polumbus, president of Whitefish Mountain Resort, said Canadian visitation is a fraction of what it was a decade ago. At one point, Canadians made up 25% of skier visits on the mountain and 50% of lodging stays. While Whitefish Mountain Resort’s visitation has continued to grow (about 430,000 last winter), Albertans only made up 5% of skier visits during the winter of 2023-2024.

“About 15 years ago, the Canadians really saved our bacon during the Great Recession,” Polumbus said.

Now, a trade war between the U.S. and Canada threatens to depress Canadian visitation even more. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on most Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on oil and gas. Canada has retaliated with its own tariffs on a number of American-made goods. Trump has said the tariffs will remain in place until fentanyl and other drugs stop coming across the border (Officials north of the border have said less than 1% of confiscated fentanyl that enters the U.S. comes from Canada, and that in January, it was almost zero). 

On Thursday afternoon, Trump decided to delay the implementation of tariffs until April 2. But even with the delay, Canadians are frustrated by the actions of their longtime ally and are letting it be known with their wallet. 

“People here are ticked at Trump,” Townley said, adding that the sentiment is felt across Canada’s political spectrum. 

While the tariffs would predominantly impact commercial trade across the border, many Canadians are deciding to cancel trips to the U.S. in protest of the Trump administration’s actions. A Canadian travel agency reported that bookings for leisure travel to American cities dropped 40% in February compared to the same month last year, and some Canadian airlines were canceling flights after seeing a drop in travel demand to the U.S. 

According to the U.S. Travel Association, Canada has traditionally been the number one source of international visitors to the U.S., with 20.4 million visits in 2024, generating $20.5 billion in spending. The trade group estimates that even a 10% drop in visitation from Canada due to trade tensions could result in $2.1 billion in lost spending and put more than 14,000 U.S. jobs at risk. 

Even some Montana Republicans are concerned about the impacts tariffs would have. Sen. Mike Cuffe of Eureka has long touted the close bond between the U.S. and Canada in his community and was vocal about the prolonged border closure’s damage during the pandemic. He said he hoped both sides could come to an agreement that would secure the border and eliminate the taxes. 

“I’m not crazy about tariffs, but it’s a tool used by Donald Trump in the past,” he told Montana Free Press. “I’m concerned, but I’m hopeful that some good will come from this down the road.”

Regardless of if or when tariffs are implemented, Townley said it’s unlikely Alberta and the Flathead Valley will have the same relationship they had a decade ago, thanks to the high cost of living and housing costs in Montana. While many Albertans loved the area, she said, those who sold their condos or homes during the pandemic simply cannot afford to buy back into the market.

“I think the glory days of all the Albertans in the Flathead Valley are over,” she said. “You have a few who held on to their properties and still come down, but the boom is over.”